The college basketball season is down to its final moments.
Sixteen days ago, there were 64 teams vying for the National Championship. Today, only four—Kentucky, Ohio State, Kansas and Louisville—remain. Both semifinals are rematches from the non-conference slate, when Kentucky knocked off Louisville, 69-62, and Kansas beat Ohio State sans Jared Sullinger, 78-67, at Allen Fieldhouse.
Will Act II be any different? Let’s take a look.
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Kentucky Wildcats (No. 1 Midwest Region) vs. Louisville Cardinals (No. 4 West Region)
When Norfolk State plays Missouri, we get “David versus Goliath.” Or when Holy Cross plays Kansas. Or when Butler plays anyone, at least that’s how it used to be. But not when Louisville plays Kentucky. Is it even legal to label a Rick Pitino coached team “David?”
I just got off the phone with a Kentucky State Trooper who happened to be a Cardinals fan, and even he admitted that in this case it’s not punishable by law. Of course he wished to remain anonymous.
No one outside the Louisville city limits is giving the Cardinals a chance. Kentucky is 36-2. This is John Calipari’s latest version of “NBA Stars of Tomorrow,” with National Player of the Year Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Marquis Teague going to Lexington for a season only because David Stern said they have to. Of the Wildcats’ 36 wins, just seven came by single digits. They’re a Christian Watford buzzer-beater and sluggish half in the SEC Tournament Final away from being 38-0.
So why should Louisville even bother showing up to The Big Easy? Well, for one, because New Orleans is party central and no one is foolish enough to pass up a free pass to Bourbon Street. But, more importantly, because the Cardinals might actually have a chance.
They played the Wildcats tough at Rupp Arena back in December before succumbing by seven. Confidence level has to be at a season-high, coming in winners of eight straight, including four in a row at Madison Square Garden to capture the Big East Tournament title. Louisville beat Davidson—a team many pinned as Cinderella—by seven, held off a game New Mexico squad, abused the nation’s roughest abusers in No. 1 seed Michigan State and rallied back from 11 down to beat Florida in the West Regional Finals.
The Cardinals have had the toughest road to New Orleans. They’re battle tested and led by the best coach in the remaining field. Four of their top players—Chris Smith, Peyton Siva, Kyle Kuric and Jared Swopshire—are experienced upper classmen, something Calipari’s crew lacks. Pace will be key, as Louisville can match wits with Kentucky in the half-court. The Wildcats finished as the top ranked defensive team in the country, but right behind them was Louisville, which tied for second with Michigan State.
The problem is Marquette, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, New Mexico, Florida, and Michigan State are not at Kentucky’s level. No one has been at any point this year. The only shot Louisville has of winning is to keep the game in the mid-50s; low 60s at most. I know full-court pressure is their money maker, but Pitino would be wise to call off the dogs here because Kentucky will break the press and, if this becomes a track meet, the Cardinals will find themselves in a hole real quick.
It isn’t often we get to watch blood rivals go at it for a spot in the National Championship Game. The atmosphere will be electric at the start. I’m hoping it lasts for two and a half hours, but that’s probably wishful thinking. Louisville’s surprise run ends here and, considering the opponent, there’s no shame in that. Kentucky wins, 73-57.
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Ohio State Buckeyes (No. 2 East Region) vs. Kansas Jayhawks (No. 2 South Region)
The nightcap features two very similar teams and a handful of interesting matchups. Sullinger vs. Thomas Robinson. Bill Self vs. Thad Matta. Aaron Craft vs. Tyshawn Taylor. Kansas won the Dec. 10 meeting mostly because Robsinson was guarding and being guarded by Evan Ravenel, not Sullinger, who was out with an injury. Robinson had his way, scoring 21 and fouling out Ravenel in 25 minutes.
Things will be different tonight. Sullinger is playing and this is a neutral court. It also happens to be a perfect matchup for Ohio State, a team with zero depth. While the Buckeyes feature arguably the nation’s best starting five, they bring almost nothing off the pine. Same goes for Kansas, whose starting five is also strong, but simply not at OSU’s level.
Frankly, given each team’s lack of depth, I’m shocked to see either one here. Look at Kansas’ bench production from last weekend’s win over North Carolina in the regional final: 33 minutes, 1-for-6 shooting, four points, 10 rebounds, three assists, one steal, a turnover and four fouls. Luckily for the Jayhawks, UNC’s Kendall Marshall was out of the lineup. Same goes for Ohio State. Against Syracuse in its regional final, the bench afforded eight points, five rebounds, an assist, two blocks, two turnovers and four fouls in 20 minutes. Wow.
Again, how on Earth did these teams manage to get this far? There’s “lack of depth” and then there’s Ohio State and Kansas. No depth whatsoever. With that said, the two are a combined 62-13 and each won at least a share of their conference regular season title. Both play strong, disciplined defense no matter who is on the floor and there aren’t many coaches better than Matta and Self.
Much like the first meeting, this figures to be close throughout. Sullinger and Robinson are two of college basketball’s brightest stars and will likely cancel eachother out. The same can be said for Craft and Taylor, although I can paint a scenario where Taylor, a senior, just goes wild and carries Kansas to victory. But since almost nobody other than Kentucky’s Brandon Knight in last year’s Sweet 16 and Illinois’ Brandon Paul in January has ever done much on Craft, I’m going to say another X-factor emerges to decide the winner.
I love Kansas’ Elijah Johnson, but I’m going to go with Ohio State sophomore Lenzelle Smith, Jr. He’s averaging just six points, 4.5 boards and two assists, but he’s the reason the Buckeyes won the East Region. Last weekend in Boston against Cincinnati and Syracuse, Smith averaged 17.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, two assists and a steal, making 6-of-10 three pointers and 11-of-18 shots overall. It wasn’t the first time he’d come up big for Ohio State, either. Smith scored 28 points on 10-for-12 shooting in an 80-63 win over Indiana in mid-January, and he scored 17 in a win over rival Michigan. Smith is clearly capable of a prime time performance.
Kansas has the feel of a team that’s just happy to be here. I’m not sure Robinson would agree, but at the very least, they’re lucky to be. The Jayhawks had no business beating Purdue in the second round and nearly choked away their Sweet 16 win over No. 11 seed NC State.
Ohio State, on the other hand, has a “championship or bust” mentality after falling well short last year as the No. 1 overall seed. Sullinger is sure to leave for the NBA after this weekend, regardless of how it plays out, and senior star William Buford goes with him. The Buckeyes likely won’t be in this position again for a few years, so I say they make the most of this opportunity. Ohio State wins, 69-65.
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